Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
