A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
